Early-onset cancer data
There is growing evidence that the number of new cases of some cancers is increasing year on year among younger populations.
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What does the data show?
Cancer is still predominantly a disease of those over 50 years of age. At the same time, there is growing evidence that the number of new cases of some cancers occurring in different organs in the body (referred to as ‘site-specific cancers’) is increasing year on year among younger populations. These cancers are commonly called ‘early-onset’ cancers and occur among those under 50 years of age.
We explored the number of new cases for different site-specific cancers from three countries (the US, the Netherlands and England) by descriptively analysing the data. This allowed us to see if the absolute number of new cases of each cancer had changed since 2000/2001. We also report incidence rates for the first and last years of data for each country.
Increases in new cases that were statistically significant were found for several cancers in each country:
- US: breast, colorectal, kidney, pancreas, uterine
- Netherlands: cervix, colorectal, kidney, liver
- England: breast, colorectal, kidney, liver, pancreas, prostate, uterine
Decreases were also found for some site-specific cancers, but were less consistent between the three countries and between the sexes.
The following tables present the data for the US and the Netherlands (2000-2023) and England (2001-2023) by sex.
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US – females
Year Breast Colorectal Cervix Uterus Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Stomach Bladder 2000 19,884 2,447 3,573 2,300 78 889 243 2,167 405 421 438 2001 20,019 2,599 3,409 2,443 91 1,021 255 2,117 391 438 402 2002 19,892 2,650 3,346 2,407 87 1,005 236 2,208 399 485 381 2003 20,336 2,628 3,306 2,374 70 1,119 268 2,291 424 479 388 2004 20,501 2,765 3,087 2,534 79 1,138 279 2,220 412 492 406 2005 20,329 2,733 3,201 2,555 77 1,193 300 2,285 430 552 369 2006 20,690 2,879 3,151 2,604 69 1,257 288 2,244 450 529 379 2007 20,903 2,948 3,160 2,594 87 1,340 293 2,085 442 537 363 2008 20,904 2,848 3,158 2,728 87 1,404 275 2,080 472 537 333 2009 20,917 2,922 3,049 2,758 76 1,452 332 2,033 499 534 353 2010 20,193 3,000 2,992 2,802 64 1,390 290 1,879 462 536 342 2011 20,622 2,855 2,898 2,758 61 1,429 306 1,729 481 507 309 2012 20,419 2,911 2,857 2,854 69 1,403 295 1,730 488 558 325 2013 20,697 2,876 2,827 2,915 70 1,506 313 1,540 488 559 292 2014 20,622 3,036 2,989 2,994 62 1,501 296 1,408 543 587 295 2015 20,865 2,983 3,024 3,083 87 1,627 330 1,364 537 602 291 2016 20,381 3,090 3,125 3,172 60 1,583 336 1,319 609 603 301 2017 21,290 3,132 3,079 3,154 66 1,687 284 1,256 560 651 293 2018 21,435 3,034 3,113 3,286 65 1,701 299 1,293 607 694 312 2019 22,343 3,205 3,200 3,407 82 1,670 334 1,228 603 683 278 2020 20,899 3,140 2,807 3,144 75 1,512 312 1,038 601 641 234 2021 22,790 3,556 3,070 3,480 72 1,773 355 1,061 625 761 253 2022 22,751 3,892 2,919 3,434 94 1,663 370 1,138 711 847 252 2023 23,621 4,346 3,004 3,673 75 1,804 373 1,220 717 836 270 Trend result Breast Colorectal Cervix Uterus Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Stomach Bladder Tau 0.65 0.83 −0.49 0.92 −0.17 0.86 0.68 −0.83 0.88 0.85 −0.82 P-value <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.24 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 Incidence rate: 2000–2023 42.9–51.7 5.3–9.5 7.6–6.4 5.0–7.9 0.2–0.2 1.9–4.0 0.5–0.8 4.7–2.7 0.9–1.6 0.9–1.8 0.9–0.6 -
US – males
Year Colorectal Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Prostate Stomach Bladder 2000 2,945 378 1,433 768 2,541 528 2,069 617 1,139 2001 2,834 361 1,583 849 2,467 520 2,255 691 1,083 2002 2,936 355 1,616 845 2,461 589 2,435 680 1,059 2003 2,998 386 1,804 907 2,456 547 2,478 684 1,022 2004 3,120 365 1,880 930 2,370 579 2,493 660 1,115 2005 3,120 383 1,920 928 2,217 540 2,531 691 1,114 2006 3,178 369 2,013 913 2,104 557 2,802 631 970 2007 3,261 370 2,082 884 2,035 604 3,100 687 968 2008 3,257 367 2,168 828 1,961 596 3,109 637 990 2009 3,320 308 2,313 858 1,807 628 3,150 654 939 2010 3,306 306 2,197 780 1,665 573 2,839 701 913 2011 3,359 325 2,368 767 1,595 594 2,841 673 872 2012 3,268 300 2,404 803 1,465 582 2,455 647 830 2013 3,324 329 2,361 697 1,386 590 2,131 695 873 2014 3,389 293 2,418 702 1,326 571 1,901 685 748 2015 3,577 299 2,532 681 1,225 645 1,824 627 798 2016 3,467 257 2,660 661 1,151 595 1,719 629 796 2017 3,707 296 2,610 650 1,131 636 1,735 714 763 2018 3,825 309 2,651 573 1,097 653 1,820 702 788 2019 3,911 290 2,776 587 1,111 705 1,847 694 749 2020 3,786 279 2,567 567 989 614 1,472 649 761 2021 4,171 293 2,782 604 1,035 701 1,658 770 728 2022 4,544 314 2,702 608 1,039 654 1,572 790 695 2023 5,006 297 2,980 618 1,052 724 1,679 792 715 Trend result Colorectal Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Prostate Stomach Bladder Tau 0.92 −0.58 0.92 −0.69 −0.95 0.65 −0.45 0.33 −0.86 P-value <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.02 <0.01 Incidence rate: 2000 & 2023 6.5–10.9 0.8–0.6 3.1–6.6 1.7–1.4 5.6–2.3 1.2–1.6 4.6–3.9 1.3–1.7 2.5–1.6 -
Netherlands – females
Year Breast Colorectal Cervix Uterus Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Stomach Bladder 2000 2,676 246 349 77 22 53 10 335 35 45 67 2001 2,885 248 339 78 21 53 21 345 45 53 81 2002 2,812 258 333 77 27 71 13 363 54 43 58 2003 2,892 282 324 91 22 64 9 371 37 45 75 2004 2,990 280 377 73 16 75 13 398 24 53 69 2005 2,932 256 364 86 21 72 17 373 38 39 71 2006 3,117 280 372 74 18 63 13 375 30 45 82 2007 3,054 294 417 83 10 90 21 375 44 38 77 2008 2,984 300 378 77 15 88 13 381 45 61 67 2009 3,211 323 382 67 21 67 10 350 47 40 55 2010 2,926 283 398 70 20 89 23 323 47 44 66 2011 3,171 324 381 84 17 89 22 348 34 54 76 2012 2,986 281 402 78 21 64 22 317 29 43 76 2013 3,039 298 379 78 16 84 19 294 44 47 80 2014 2,982 332 418 60 19 77 25 281 47 36 69 2015 2,971 313 388 78 17 92 21 236 35 36 57 2016 2,915 314 447 70 20 82 23 267 41 29 68 2017 3,028 313 438 75 15 79 22 249 45 28 69 2018 2,973 302 470 87 15 91 36 226 35 29 56 2019 3,027 278 515 79 13 104 25 215 31 27 54 2020 2,768 295 453 86 11 69 24 227 27 39 44 2021 2,878 290 563 101 20 88 29 191 34 43 59 2022 2,855 287 546 76 11 60 26 167 33 32 52 2023 2,842 285 465 83 8 87 29 164 34 32 37 Trend result Breast Colorectal Cervix Uterus Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Stomach Bladder Tau −0.07 0.32 0.77 0.12 −0.52 0.31 0.66 −0.71 −0.21 −0.47 −0.44 P-value 0.64 0.03 <0.01 0.43 <0.01 0.03 <0.01 <0.01 0.16 <0.01 <0.01 Incidence rate: 2000–2023 51.6–59.5 4.8–6.0 6.3–9.3 1.5–1.7 0.4–0.2 1.0–1.8 0.2–0.6 6.6–3.4 0.7–0.7 0.9–0.7 1.3–0.8 -
Netherlands – males
Year Colorectal Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Prostate Stomach Bladder 2000 266 73 108 23 288 63 39 52 167 2001 277 62 96 21 285 54 41 52 180 2002 264 82 117 32 267 44 53 50 183 2003 292 80 129 28 296 36 52 52 186 2004 315 58 121 26 291 49 58 66 180 2005 311 77 129 31 247 43 69 46 198 2006 297 68 140 22 275 35 98 32 158 2007 291 62 163 24 250 57 84 43 175 2008 323 64 131 33 230 69 77 40 183 2009 322 71 144 31 242 58 91 51 179 2010 349 74 155 32 258 43 103 48 198 2011 336 86 153 34 251 37 96 33 182 2012 341 71 144 26 224 58 74 57 189 2013 357 67 165 35 249 51 91 42 182 2014 337 79 158 21 225 44 91 40 170 2015 309 68 129 39 231 40 88 45 169 2016 321 58 150 35 235 44 73 31 174 2017 331 60 160 28 190 42 77 37 179 2018 354 64 173 32 224 45 66 39 171 2019 306 73 130 23 219 55 84 27 165 2020 346 52 133 36 191 50 56 46 116 2021 334 47 149 31 198 31 55 30 155 2022 293 45 147 26 178 37 52 31 136 2023 340 44 153 38 182 35 69 36 125 Trend result Colorectal Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Prostate Stomach Bladder Tau 0.41 −0.40 0.44 0.29 −0.74 −0.24 0.05 −0.51 −0.44 P-value <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.05 <0.01 0.11 0.75 <0.01 <0.01 Incidence rate: 2000–2023 5.0–7.2 1.4–0.9 2.0–3.2 0.4–0.8 5.5–3.8 1.2–0.7 0.8–1.5 1.0–0.8 3.2–2.6 -
England – females
Year Breast Colorectal Cervix Uterus Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Stomach Bladder 2001 6,886 627 1,317 335 78 192 45 454 96 132 81 2002 6,804 637 1,256 304 64 205 55 433 112 97 68 2003 7,183 624 1,249 359 76 230 53 498 89 125 54 2004 7,346 648 1,272 361 65 241 60 457 88 134 72 2005 7,537 711 1,313 405 63 249 60 462 104 114 87 2006 7,571 776 1,395 429 73 217 65 472 132 119 64 2007 7,550 761 1,380 456 59 239 76 456 117 127 76 2008 7,916 746 1,483 495 74 284 83 475 121 119 79 2009 8,151 820 1,803 469 63 283 89 532 124 119 71 2010 8,594 856 1,437 468 60 261 69 504 128 145 68 2011 8,441 902 1,584 476 58 310 79 437 138 125 71 2012 8,626 1,050 1,564 506 65 329 76 516 142 147 74 2013 8,881 1,045 1,645 525 72 361 89 450 163 120 78 2014 8,646 1,024 1,659 545 61 370 96 497 143 132 77 2015 8,610 1,117 1,629 474 58 385 90 516 158 131 67 2016 8,624 1,136 1,618 523 58 405 79 455 153 125 66 2017 8,494 1,027 1,616 534 49 379 89 424 144 131 52 2018 8,476 1,076 1,628 552 76 370 97 508 163 134 69 2019 8,533 1,113 1,655 551 52 390 100 474 176 161 67 2020 7,788 1,016 1,388 525 46 326 124 438 145 118 58 2021 7,883 1,282 1,565 597 60 401 91 446 164 145 63 2022 8,113 1,318 1,432 651 62 384 96 449 197 173 66 2023 8,507 1,483 1,218 698 55 413 96 426 169 171 61 Trend result Breast Colorectal Cervix Uterus Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Stomach Bladder Tau 0.44 0.81 0.30 0.86 −0.47 0.78 0.77 −0.13 0.80 0.41 −0.37 P-value <0.01 <0.01 <0.05 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.40 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 Incidence rate: 2000–2023 42–47.5 3.8–8.3 8.0–6.8 1.8–3.9 0.5–0.3 1.2–2.3 0.3–0.5 2.8–2.4 0.6–0.9 0.8–1.0 0.5–0.3 -
England – males
Year Colorectal Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Prostate Stomach Bladder 2001 662 192 318 115 548 159 158 205 184 2002 700 207 352 107 504 130 174 228 165 2003 724 197 356 113 461 139 173 209 147 2004 784 206 342 114 506 121 213 187 163 2005 810 174 355 122 503 146 230 177 156 2006 857 192 396 134 512 140 248 197 139 2007 805 222 427 127 488 153 244 175 133 2008 878 203 433 157 489 167 302 193 163 2009 918 221 451 167 491 180 389 206 164 2010 870 233 505 172 532 172 368 213 156 2011 994 181 516 129 490 171 416 191 144 2012 1,092 225 545 158 493 180 411 193 150 2013 1,060 192 586 157 482 189 418 179 141 2014 1,103 191 662 187 472 202 480 187 148 2015 1,050 179 636 158 464 168 455 188 139 2016 1,160 209 670 169 523 203 482 163 125 2017 1,070 199 697 167 443 180 488 159 114 2018 1,150 190 662 149 499 203 541 166 115 2019 1,196 187 644 149 474 190 537 199 140 2020 1,071 169 531 155 434 192 404 192 115 2021 1,273 184 684 161 426 176 411 224 145 2022 1,348 165 694 154 457 184 571 200 126 2023 1,506 157 652 182 448 177 640 197 132 Trend result Colorectal Oesophagus Kidney Liver Lung Pancreas Prostate Stomach Bladder Tau 0.87 −0.39 0.79 0.47 −0.49 0.58 0.82 −0.12 −0.55 P-value <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.43 <0.01 Incidence rate: 2000–2023 4.0–8.4 1.2–0.9 1.9–3.6 0.7–1.0 3.3–2.5 1.0-1.0 1.0-3.6 1.2–1.1 1.1–0.7
How did we analyse the data?
To help us understand how the numbers of each site-specific cancer have been changing we descriptively analysed the data, undertook trend analysis and produced incidence rates.
Descriptive analysis helps us to report (describe) the number of cancers occurring in a specific year and explore whether there are changes, patterns and trends in those numbers over time – in this instance between 2000/2001 and 2023.
Analysis of US data uses data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER*Explorer. SEER Incidence Data, November 2025 Submission (1975–2023), SEER 21 registries. National Cancer Institute.
Analysis of data from the Netherlands uses data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR), managed by the Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL).
Analysis of data from England uses data that has been provided by patients and collected by the NHS as part of their care and support. The data are collated, maintained and quality assured by the National Disease Registration Service, which is part of NHS England.
Trend analysis
We undertook trend-over-time analysis to better understand if the increasing or decreasing numbers over time were statistically significant – meaning that the results we are seeing are real differences and not happening by chance.
Incidence rates
We report age-adjusted incidence rates for 2000 and 2023 for the US and Netherlands, and age-specific incidence rates for 2001 and 2023 for England.
An age-adjusted incidence rate is calculated using the same standard mix of age groups within a population. By reporting age-adjusted rates, we can make fairer comparisons and be more confident that differences in rates reflect real differences, rather than differences in age distribution.
For England, age-adjusted incidence rates were not available for those under the age of 50. Instead, we report age-specific incidence rates. These measure the number of new cases of a disease in a particular age group over a particular period of time. It accounts for the size of the age group, rather than simply counting new cases, but unlike an age-adjusted incidence rate, it does not take into account the age distribution of the whole population.
Further information
The three countries within this analysis were selected because they form the WCRF network of organisations – American Institute for Cancer Research (AICR) in the US, Wereld Kanker Onderzoek Fonds (WKOF) in the Netherlands, and World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) in the UK.
For further information about cancer statistics from each country, please see the following links:
- US: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program website
- Netherlands: Netherlands Cancer Registry
England: NHS England Cancer Registry
To test for statistical significance, we performed the Mann-Kendall Test. This determines whether a variable (in this instance number of new cases of each site-specific cancer) has a monotonic (always increasing or always decreasing) trend over time.
The Tau result tells us if the change over time is increasing or decreasing (>0 = increasing, <0 = decreasing), while the p-value tells us whether the change is statistically significant (p-value = 0.05 considered statistically significant).
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